Once-obscure political science professor Helmut Norpoth is now basking in the sweet glow of success — and newfound fame — after confidently predicting way back in February that Donald Trump was virtually guaranteed to win the 2016 presidential election.
Norpoth, a faculty member at Stony Brook University, announced his prognostication that Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton some 262 days ago. He asserted a confidence level of 97 percent in what he calls the Primary Model, he said.
On Tuesday, the professor’s prophecy was proven right.
— Nicole Petallides (@NPetallides) November 9, 2016
Modern polling is “bunk,” Norpoth told NewYorkUpstate.com after Tuesday’s election.
Voter intent doesn’t matter, he said. Instead, the things that really matter are excitement among primary voters and certain cyclical patterns.
“Nearly all of us say, oh yes, I’ll vote, and then many will not follow through,” Norpoth told the website.
“The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,” Norpoth initially said in February, according to The Statesman, the campus newspaper at Stony Brook, a public bastion on New York’s Long Island.
“When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke,” the professor told an alumni audience. “Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore.”
“Take it to the bank,” he added.
Norpoth specifically predicted that Trump had a 97 percent chance of beating Democrat Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of beating Bernie Sanders, a socialist running as a Democrat.