FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver has analyzed the results from the 2018 midterms and is warning Republicans of Electoral College problems for President Donald Trump in the 2020 election:
Will the Electoral College help Trump again in 2020? Actually, based on the results from the midterms, that's not so clear. https://t.co/iDz0iMHUe5
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 8, 2018
Silver based this map showing a 314-224 victory for Dems based on popular vote data in each House race, with Dems flipping the “tipping point” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania:
Democrats did very well in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which are basically the tipping-point states right now. I posted this map last night, but here's who won each state in the popular vote for the House in each state. Dark blue / dark red = won by at least 5 points. pic.twitter.com/Q7PLB6d4Ob
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 8, 2018
Even shifting votes to a “neutral environment” gives Dems the edge 278-260:
Of course, Tuesday was a very blue night. But if you shift every state toward Republicans by 6 points, which roughly reflects what you'd get in a neutral political environment, here's what the map looks like. This looks like a pretty fair fight for the Electoral College. pic.twitter.com/HKe1z66C22
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 8, 2018
