In this world, there seems to be people out there that can somehow predict what are going to happen. For example, my wife can pretty much predict what is going to happen, or even what people are going to say.
Some folks have this knack for analyzing data and coming to a conclusion, some people have a way of just coming to having an idea out of thin air.
In 2016, when Donald Trump won the election there were people that acted like they were surprised. Then again, there were people that knew the whole time.
In 2016, Professor Norpoth, a political science professor at Long Island’s Stoney Brook University was ridiculed after he claimed that Donald Trump had an 87% chance of winning the presidential election over Hillary Clinton.
On election night, the NYT predicted that Hillary had a 92% chance of winning the election.
Prof Norpoth has developed a model and it has been correct in every election since 1996. He has now made his prediction for 2020.
He says that President Trump has a 91% chance of winning in November. That’s even worse than his rating for Hillary.
Trump was aided by the fact that Hillary was the all-time worst candidate ever for the presidency until her record was eclipsed this year by Joe Biden.
Biden is wisely staying hidden so that the voters won’t hear his daily gaffes but he will be debating the president three times, which will be enough to sink his campaign. Trump will highlight his opponent’s bumbles and stumbles in the debates. He’ll take Biden like Grant took Richmond…before they tore his statue down.
We reported that his 2016 forecast rested on a model that tracks cyclical movements in American presidential elections. It goes back to 1828, when popular voting became widespread and the two-party system took hold. Over nearly two centuries, American presidential elections have exhibited a distinct cycle. This is not the pattern associated with partisan realignments that may last 30 years or so, but a shorter cycle that relates to party control of the White House.